MeritValue

ZEVRA THERAPEUTICS, INC.

ZVRAdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ZEVRA THERAPEUTICS, INC. earns about -96% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 92% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$28.7M1$10.2M2$27.5M3$23.6M4$106.5M4
Net income−$8.56M5−$26.8M6−$46M7−$105.5M8$83.2M8
Operating cash flow$10.4M9−$18.7M10−$33.5M11−$69.7M12−$1.6M12
Capital expenditure$102,00013$93,00014$296,00015$016$835,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$10.3M9−$18.8M10−$33.8M11−$69.7M12−$2.43M12
Total debt——$5.07M17$119M18$123.9M18
Cash & equivalents$112.3M19$65.5M20$43M21$33.8M22$62.4M22
Diluted shares29.8M34.5M35.5M46.3M57.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$27.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.53
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$21.63

10 shares is a claim on $27.01 of net worth that earned you $14.53 and generated −$0.42 of cash last year, against $21.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-96% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -217%FY23 -147%FY24 -57%FY25 39%

It earned an average -96% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+92% shares · 5y

Share count is up 92% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 2345% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$9.06
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005703 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010430 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007320 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001434647-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005703 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010430 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007320 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001434647-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005703 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010430 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007320 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001434647-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005703 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010430 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007320 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001434647-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007320 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001434647-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005703 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010430 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007320 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001434647-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)