MeritValue

Zumiez Inc

ZUMZdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Zumiez Inc earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 30% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.04 and $12.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.18B1$958.4M2$875.5M3$889.2M3$929.1M3
Net income$119.3M4$21M5−$62.6M6−$1.71M6$13.4M6
Operating cash flow$135M7−$379,0008$14.8M9$20.7M9$53.5M9
Capital expenditure$15.7M10$25.6M11$20.4M12$15M12$11.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$119.2M7−$26M8−$5.6M9$5.7M9$42.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$117.2M13$81.5M14$88.9M15$112.7M15$127.9M15
Diluted shares24.6M19.4M19.3M18.9M17.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$188.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.59
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $188.01 of net worth that earned you $7.76 and generated $24.59 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY22 34%FY23 6%FY24 -18%FY25 1%FY26 7%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−30% shares · 5y

Share count is down 30% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.04 and $12.13 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.7M
Earnings Power Value
$8.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$13.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.13
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.13
Base0.0%$12.13
Bull5.0%$13.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-031449 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-038692 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-104063 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-031449 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-038692 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-104063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-031449 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-038692 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-104063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-031449 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-038692 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-104063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-031449 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-038692 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-104063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)