MeritValue

Zapata Quantum, Inc.

ZPTAdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Zapata Quantum, Inc. earns about -77% on equity, but has diluted owners by 4781% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$5.68M1$3.88M2—
Net income−$10,8613$1.89M4−$29.7M5−$38.1M6$9.34M6
Operating cash flow−$7,9107−$1.93M8−$14.8M9−$18.1M10−$1.67M10
Capital expenditure———$34,00011—
Free cash flow (derived)———−$18.1M10—
Total debt——$8.9M12$4.17M13$4.41M14
Cash & equivalents$015$016$2.69M17$38,00018$018
Diluted shares——4.7M29.4M227.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$0.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.41
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.19

10 shares is a claim on −$0.36 of net worth that earned you $0.41 last year, against $0.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-77% avg · 5y
FY21 -77%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -77% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4781% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4781% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 50% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001079973-25-001836 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000401 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-075905 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-076744 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001079973-25-001836 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000401 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-075905 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-076744 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001079973-25-001836 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000401 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000401 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001079973-25-001836 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000401 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000401 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-075905 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-076744 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001079973-25-001836 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000401 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)