MeritValue

ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/

ZIONdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/ earns about 14% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $63.31 and $369.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$449M1$495M2$503M3$513M3$529M3
Net income$1.13B4$907M5$680M6$784M6$899M6
Operating cash flow$629M7$1.47B8$885M9$1.15B9$1.07B9
Capital expenditure$206M10$190M11$113M12$97M12$121M12
Free cash flow (derived)$423M7$1.28B8$772M9$1.05B9$952M9
Total debt$1.92B13$11.1B14$4.92B14$4.78B15$3.1B16
Cash & equivalents$595M17$657M18$716M18$651M18$683M18
Diluted shares160.2M150.3M147.8M147.2M147.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$487.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$61.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$64.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$210.93

10 shares is a claim on $487.91 of net worth that earned you $61.09 and generated $64.69 of cash last year, against $210.93 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
14% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 19%FY23 12%FY24 13%FY25 13%

It earned about 14% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 62% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $63.31 and $369.38 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$369.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$952M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$194.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$952M
Earnings Power Value
$63.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$899M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$81.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $194.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$75.98
Base20.0%$194.47
Bull20.0%$194.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000109380-24-000061 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000109380-25-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000109380-26-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000109380-24-000061 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000109380-25-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000109380-26-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000109380-24-000061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000109380-25-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000109380-26-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000109380-24-000061 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000109380-25-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000109380-26-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000109380-23-000074 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000109380-24-000061 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000109380-25-000040 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000109380-26-000046 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000109380-25-000040 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000109380-26-000046 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)