MeritValue

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.

ZGNdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between €3.08 and €50.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€1.29B1€1.49B2€1.9B3€1.95B3€1.92B3
Net income−€136M4€51.5M5€121.5M6€77.1M6€98.6M6
Operating cash flow€281.2M7€146.4M8€275.4M9€279.1M9€335.6M9
Capital expenditure€79.7M10€49.1M11€57M12€100.1M12€80.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)€201.5M7€97.3M8€218.3M9€179M9€255.1M9
Total debt€628.9M13€471.1M14€402.6M15€373.6M16€246.2M16
Cash & equivalents€459.8M17€254.3M18€296.3M18€219.1M18€220.1M18
Diluted shares242.3M242.8M247.0M251.5M259.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€39.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€3.8
Free cash flow it threw off
€9.82
Debt you’d be carrying
€9.48

10 shares is a claim on €39.72 of net worth that earned you €3.8 and generated €9.82 of cash last year, against €9.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 -10%FY22 7%FY23 14%FY24 8%FY25 10%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 61% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €3.08 and €50.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€50.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase€218.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€27.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase€218.3M
Earnings Power Value
€3.08
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€77.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€5.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €27.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%€11.92
Base20.0%€27.32
Bull20.0%€27.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877787-24-000015 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877787-25-000019 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877787-26-000015 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877787-24-000015 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877787-25-000019 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877787-26-000015 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877787-24-000015 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877787-25-000019 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877787-26-000015 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877787-24-000015 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877787-25-000019 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877787-26-000015 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877787-23-000023 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877787-24-000015 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001877787-25-000019 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001877787-26-000015 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001877787-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001877787-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalents)