MeritValue

ZILLOW GROUP, INC.

ZGdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ZILLOW GROUP, INC. earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.24 and $16.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.13B1$1.96B2$1.95B3$2.24B3$2.58B3
Net income−$528M4−$101M5−$158M6−$112M6$23M6
Operating cash flow−$3.18B7$4.5B8$354M9$428M9$368M9
Capital expenditure$74M10$115M11$135M12$143M12$133M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.25B7$4.39B8$219M9$285M9$235M9
Total debt$1.32B13————
Cash & equivalents$2.32B14$1.47B15$1.49B16$1.08B17$768M17
Diluted shares261.8M242.2M233.6M234.1M254.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$192.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.25
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $192.19 of net worth that earned you $0.91 and generated $9.25 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 -1%FY23 -3%FY24 -1%FY25 1%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.24 and $16.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$235M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$235M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$6.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.24
Base0.0%$16.24
Bull5.0%$19.43

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001617640-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001617640-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617640-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001617640-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001617640-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617640-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001617640-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001617640-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617640-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001617640-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001617640-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617640-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001617640-22-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001617640-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001617640-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617640-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001617640-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)