MeritValue

Zeta Global Holdings Corp.

ZETAdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Zeta Global Holdings Corp. earns about -31% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 154% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.64 and $28.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$458.3M1$591M2$728.7M3$1.01B3$1.3B3
Net income−$249.6M4−$279.2M5−$187.5M6−$69.8M6−$31.5M6
Operating cash flow$44.3M7$78.5M8$90.5M9$133.9M9$198.9M9
Capital expenditure$9.48M10$22.2M11$20.5M12$25.7M12$13.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$34.8M7$56.3M8$70M9$108.1M9$185.1M9
Total debt$367.2M13$367.9M14$368.3M15$392.6M16$394.2M16
Cash & equivalents$103.9M17$121.1M18$131.7M19$366.2M20$319.8M20
Diluted shares86.9M139.0M156.7M186.0M220.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$36.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.86

10 shares is a claim on $36.45 of net worth that earned you −$1.43 and generated $8.39 of cash last year, against $17.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-31% avg · 5y
FY21 -54%FY22 -58%FY23 -33%FY24 -8%FY25 -3%

It earned about -31% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+154% shares · 5y

Share count is up 154% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.64 and $28.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$28.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$108.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$108.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.66
Base20.0%$15.64
Bull20.0%$15.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021671 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027338 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068598 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021671 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027338 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068598 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021671 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027338 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068598 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021671 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027338 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068598 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004243 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021671 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027338 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068598 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004243 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021671 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027338 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068598 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)