MeritValue

Zeo Energy Corp.

ZEOdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Zeo Energy Corp. earns about -74% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 455% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$109.7M1$73.2M1$69.3M2
Net income$14.3M3−$3M3−$2.67M4−$14M4
Operating cash flow$3.28M5$12M6−$8.72M7−$8.69M7
Capital expenditure—$1.03M8$369,1379$1.22M9
Free cash flow (derived)—$10.9M6−$9.09M7−$9.91M7
Total debt——$5.04M10$10.1M10
Cash & equivalents$614,76711$8.02M12$5.63M13$6.14M13
Diluted shares—1.0M5.5M—

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-74% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 17%FY24 —FY25 -164%

It earned an average -74% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+455% shares · 4y

Share count is up 455% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 101% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-047877 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037791 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028724 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037791 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028724 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-047877 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037791 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-047877 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037791 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037791 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-088011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-047877 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037791 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)