MeritValue

ZIFF DAVIS, INC.

ZDdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ZIFF DAVIS, INC. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.9 and $71.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.42B1$1.39B2$1.36B3$1.4B3$1.45B3
Net income$496.7M4$63.8M5$41.5M6$63M6$47.4M6
Operating cash flow$516.5M7$336.4M8$320M9$390.3M9$407.1M9
Capital expenditure$113.7M10$106.2M11$108.7M12$106.6M12$119.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$402.8M7$230.3M8$211.2M9$283.7M9$287.9M9
Total debt$2.18B13$2B14$2B15$1.73B16$1.73B16
Cash & equivalents$694.8M17$652.8M18$737.6M19$505.9M20$607M20
Diluted shares47.9M47.0M46.5M44.5M41.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$426.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.52
Free cash flow it threw off
$70.04
Debt you’d be carrying
$421.67

10 shares is a claim on $426.68 of net worth that earned you $11.52 and generated $70.04 of cash last year, against $421.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 3%FY23 3%FY24 2%FY25 3%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 21% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.9 and $71.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$63.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$283.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$71.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$283.7M
Earnings Power Value
$15.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$63M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $71.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$71.22
Base0.0%$71.22
Bull5.0%$95.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084048-24-000013 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084048-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001084048-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084048-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084048-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001084048-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084048-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084048-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001084048-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084048-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084048-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001084048-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084048-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084048-24-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001084048-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001084048-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084048-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084048-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001084048-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001084048-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)