MeritValue

Grayscale Zcash Trust (ZEC)

ZCSHdata completeness 25%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'operatingCashFlow'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'cash'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'stockholdersEquity'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

The applicable estimate puts fair value near $23.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$20.7M1−$36.2M2−$3.58M3$11M3$177.8M3
Operating cash flow—————
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares3.8M3.8M3.8M4.7M4.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
—
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$368.1
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares of this business that earned you $368.1 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+28% shares · 5y

Share count is up 28% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$23.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019126 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035469 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104253 (NetIncomeLoss)