MeritValue

ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP

ZBRAdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $93.69 and $185.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.63B1$5.78B2$4.58B3$4.98B3$5.4B3
Net income$837M4$463M5$296M6$528M6$419M6
Operating cash flow$1.07B7$488M8−$4M9$1.01B9$917M9
Capital expenditure$59M10$75M11$87M12$59M12$86M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.01B7$413M8−$91M9$954M9$831M9
Total debt$991M13$2.02B14$2.22B15$2.17B16$2.5B16
Cash & equivalents$332M17$105M18$137M19$901M19$125M19
Diluted shares53.9M52.6M51.7M51.9M51.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$700.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$81.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$162.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$488.55

10 shares is a claim on $700.61 of net worth that earned you $81.82 and generated $162.27 of cash last year, against $488.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 10%FY23 6%FY24 11%FY25 7%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 152% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $93.69 and $185.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$167.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$831M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$185.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$831M
Earnings Power Value
$93.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$463M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$113.56
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $185.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$185.43
Base0.0%$185.43
Bull5.0%$241.54

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877212-24-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877212-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007668 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877212-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877212-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007668 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877212-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877212-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007668 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877212-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877212-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007668 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877212-23-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877212-24-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000877212-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007668 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877212-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877212-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007668 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)