MeritValue

Zenas BioPharma, Inc.

ZBIOdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Zenas BioPharma, Inc. earns about -103% on equity, but has diluted owners by 2821% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$50M1$5M2$10M2
Net income−$37.1M3−$157M4−$377.7M4
Operating cash flow−$30.5M5−$119.7M6−$172.3M6
Capital expenditure$17,0007$131,0008$18,0008
Free cash flow (derived)−$30.5M5−$119.8M6−$172.4M6
Total debt——$78.6M9
Cash & equivalents$56.9M10$319.7M11$110.6M11
Diluted shares1.5M13.2M44.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$54.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$84.45
Free cash flow it threw off
−$38.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.58

10 shares is a claim on $54.13 of net worth that earned you −$84.45 and generated −$38.53 of cash last year, against $17.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-103% avg · 3y
FY23 —FY24 -50%FY25 -156%

It earned an average -103% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2821% shares · 3y

Share count is up 2821% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002631 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027964 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002631 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027964 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002631 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027964 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002631 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027964 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027964 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002631 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027964 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)