MeritValue

ZIMMER BIOMET HOLDINGS, INC.

ZBHdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ZIMMER BIOMET HOLDINGS, INC. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.77 and $77.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.83B1$6.94B2$7.39B3$7.68B3$8.23B3
Net income$401.6M4$231.4M5$1.02B6$903.8M6$705.1M6
Operating cash flow$1.5B7$1.36B8$1.58B9$1.5B9$1.7B9
Capital expenditure$143.6M10$187.9M11$291.1M12$203.8M12$224.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.36B7$1.17B8$1.29B9$1.3B9$1.47B9
Total debt$8.07B13$5.7B14$5.77B15$6.2B16$7.52B16
Cash & equivalents$378.1M17$375.7M18$415.8M19$525.5M20$591.9M20
Diluted shares210.4M210.3M209.7M203.9M198.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$639.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$35.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$74.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$378.41

10 shares is a claim on $639.04 of net worth that earned you $35.49 and generated $74.11 of cash last year, against $378.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 1%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 2%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.77 and $77.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$77.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.5%
  • fcfBase$1.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$73.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.5%
  • fcfBase$1.3B
Earnings Power Value
$36.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$705.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$71.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $73.68
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.3
Base3.5%$73.68
Bull8.5%$99.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019353 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026604 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059853 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019353 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026604 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059853 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-007160 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026604 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059853 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019353 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026604 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059853 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004264 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019353 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026604 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059853 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004264 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019353 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026604 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059853 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)