MeritValue

Ares Real Estate Income Trust Inc.

ZAREdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Ares Real Estate Income Trust Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 96% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$218.4M1$299.2M2$353.2M3$417.5M3$498.8M3
Net income$30.8M4−$40M5−$62.4M6−$37.1M6−$68M6
Operating cash flow$49.4M7$62.5M8$16M9−$169.5M9$253.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.36B10$1.62B11$1.96B12$2.7B13$2.97B13
Cash & equivalents$10.6M14$13.3M15$15.1M15$19.6M15$40.1M15
Diluted shares174.3M233.3M267.6M305.2M342.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.99
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$86.8

10 shares is a claim on $19.14 of net worth that earned you −$1.99 last year, against $86.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 3%FY23 2%FY24 2%FY25 1%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+96% shares · 5y

Share count is up 96% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 118% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003073 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002411 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015437 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002411 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015437 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002411 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015437 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004201 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003073 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002411 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015437 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002411 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015437 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)