MeritValue

YUM BRANDS INC

YUMdata completeness 100%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $57.49 and $122.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.58B1$6.84B2$7.08B3$7.55B3$8.21B3
Net income$1.58B4$1.33B5$1.6B6$1.49B6$1.56B6
Operating cash flow$1.71B7$1.43B8$1.6B9$1.69B9$2.01B9
Capital expenditure$230M10$279M11$285M12$257M12$371M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.48B7$1.15B8$1.32B9$1.43B9$1.64B9
Total debt$136M13$796M14$106M15$54M16$76M16
Cash & equivalents$486M17$367M18$512M19$616M19$709M19
Diluted shares302.0M290.0M285.0M285.0M281.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$260.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$55.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$58.33
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.7

10 shares is a claim on −$260.68 of net worth that earned you $55.48 and generated $58.33 of cash last year, against $2.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 44% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $57.49 and $122.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$122.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase$1.43B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$103.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase$1.43B
Earnings Power Value
$57.49
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.56B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $103.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$75.06
Base7.6%$103.39
Bull12.6%$126.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001041061-24-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001041061-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001041061-26-000084 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001041061-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001041061-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001041061-26-000084 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001041061-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001041061-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001041061-26-000084 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001041061-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001041061-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001041061-26-000084 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001041061-23-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001041061-24-000011 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001041061-25-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001041061-26-000084 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001041061-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001041061-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001041061-26-000084 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)