Yiren Digital Ltd.
YRDdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Yiren Digital Ltd. earns about 48% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.28 and $68.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $702.7M1 | $498M2 | $689.5M3 | $795.4M4 | $817.8M5 |
| Net income | $162.1M6 | $173.2M7 | $293M8 | $216.8M9 | $7.8M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $24.8M11 | $268.1M12 | $305.8M13 | $195.1M14 | $100.6M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.48M16 | $128,00017 | $626,00018 | $1.26M19 | $3.68M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $23.3M11 | $268M12 | $305.2M13 | $193.8M14 | $96.9M15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $449.5M21 | $619.4M22 | $815.7M23 | $526.3M24 | $478.8M25 |
| Diluted shares | 170.6M | 175.4M | 178.7M | 174.7M | 174.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $75.9 of net worth that earned you $0.45 and generated $5.55 of cash last year.
It earned about 48% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.28 and $68.92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$193.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$193.8M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$173.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $18.6 |
| Base | 20.0% | $38.92 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $38.92 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-101920 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051893 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-061967 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000931 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-049159 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-101920 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051893 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-061967 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000931 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-049159 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-101920 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051893 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-061967 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000931 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-049159 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-101920 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051893 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-061967 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000931 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-049159 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-101920 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051893 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-061967 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000931 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-049159 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)