MeritValue

YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA

YPFdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA earns about 3% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.7B1$18.8B2$17.3B3$19.3B3$18.4B3
Net income$26M4$2.23B5−$1.31B6$2.35B6−$826M6
Operating cash flow$4.2B7$5.69B8$5.91B9$5.87B9$4.96B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$7.38B10$7.09B11$8.19B11$8.94B11$10.6B11
Cash & equivalents$611M12$773M13$1.12B13$1.12B13$933M13
Diluted shares393.3M393.3M393.3M393.3M393.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$274.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$21
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$269.02

10 shares is a claim on $274.95 of net worth that earned you −$21 last year, against $269.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 13%FY23 -8%FY24 5%FY25 2%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 43% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$26M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-114066 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-067155 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126363 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-114066 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-067155 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126363 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-114066 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-067155 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126363 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-067155 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126363 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-067155 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126363 (CashAndCashEquivalents)