Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.
YMMdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 56% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.16 and $0.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $730.8M1 | $976.3M2 | $1.19B3 | $1.54B4 | $1.79B5 |
| Net income | −$573.5M6 | $59.7M7 | $313.7M8 | $427.9M9 | $637.6M10 |
| Operating cash flow | −$33.2M11 | −$2.25M12 | $319.7M13 | $406.9M14 | $661.6M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $6.78M16 | $12.4M17 | $14.1M18 | $10.3M19 | $18.5M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$40M11 | −$14.7M12 | $305.5M13 | $396.6M14 | $643.1M15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $672.3M21 | $744.8M22 | $953.7M23 | $796M24 | $867.4M25 |
| Diluted shares | 13.45B | 21.58B | 21.16B | 20.90B | 20.93B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $2.77 of net worth that earned you $0.3 and generated $0.31 of cash last year.
It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 56% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.16 and $0.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$396.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$396.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$313.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $0.31 |
| Base | 5.0% | $0.38 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $0.46 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-117547 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-106426 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
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- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-117547 (ProfitLoss)
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- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-095461 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-079553 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-153778 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-117547 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
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- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-095461 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-079553 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
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- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-095461 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-079553 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
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- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-095461 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-079553 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-153778 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)