MeritValue

YETI Holdings, Inc.

YETIdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

YETI Holdings, Inc. earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.58 and $161 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$1.41B1$1.6B2$1.66B3$1.83B3$1.87B3
Net income$212.6M4$89.7M5$169.9M6$175.7M6$165.4M6
Operating cash flow$146.5M7$100.9M8$285.9M9$261.4M9$254.7M9
Capital expenditure$56.1M10$45.9M11$50.7M12$41.8M12$42.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$90.4M7$55M8$235.3M9$219.6M9$212.1M9
Total debt$230.7M13$184.2M14$165.1M15$155.1M16$146.3M16
Cash & equivalents$312.2M17$234.7M18$439M18$358.8M18$188.3M18
Diluted shares88.7M87.2M87.4M85.8M81.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$79.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.99
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.94

10 shares is a claim on $79.7 of net worth that earned you $20.27 and generated $25.99 of cash last year, against $17.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY22 49%FY22 20%FY23 38%FY24 33%FY26 27%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 37% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.58 and $161 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$161
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$219.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$88.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$219.6M
Earnings Power Value
$21.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$169.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $88.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$38.96
Base20.0%$88.24
Bull20.0%$88.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001670592-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670592-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001670592-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001670592-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670592-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001670592-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001670592-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670592-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001670592-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001670592-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670592-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001670592-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001670592-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670592-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001670592-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001670592-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001670592-25-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001670592-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)