Yalla Group Ltd
YALAdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Yalla Group Ltd earns about 99% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.51 and $18.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $273.1M1 | $303.6M2 | $318.9M3 | $339.7M3 | $341.9M3 |
| Net income | $82.6M4 | $79M5 | $113.1M6 | $134.2M6 | $148.1M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $144.2M7 | $119.5M8 | $139.3M9 | $172.8M9 | $137.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.49M10 | $1.57M11 | $1.28M12 | $705,86312 | $1.98M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $142.8M7 | $118M8 | $138M9 | $172.1M9 | $135.6M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $351.5M13 | $407.3M14 | $311.9M15 | $488.4M15 | $527M15 |
| Diluted shares | 179.9M | 176.6M | 181.8M | 183.2M | 180.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $44.99 of net worth that earned you $8.23 and generated $7.53 of cash last year.
It earned about 99% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.51 and $18.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.4%
- fcfBase$138M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.4%
- fcfBase$138M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$113.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $13.88 |
| Base | 5.4% | $16.75 |
| Bull | 10.4% | $19.96 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-046629 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-056954 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-168267 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-046629 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-056954 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-168267 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-046629 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-056954 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-168267 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-046629 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-056954 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-168267 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-046629 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-056954 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-168267 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)