Exzeo Group, Inc.
XZOdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Exzeo Group, Inc. earns about 162% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.86 and $14.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $88.3M1 | $133.9M1 | $217M1 |
| Net income | $21.5M2 | $45.3M2 | $82.7M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $10.2M3 | $49.3M3 | $100.3M3 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.25M4 | $3.33M4 | $2.84M4 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $6.91M3 | $45.9M3 | $97.5M3 |
| Total debt | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $15.1M5 | $54.5M6 | $305.4M6 |
| Diluted shares | 76.1M | 77.5M | 80.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $31.7 of net worth that earned you $10.32 and generated $12.16 of cash last year.
It earned about 162% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 5% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.86 and $14.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$45.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$45.9M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$45.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $11.99 |
| Base | 5.0% | $13.98 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $16.35 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076686 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076686 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076686 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076686 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076686 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076686 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)