MeritValue

Block, Inc.

XYZdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Block, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.77 and $159.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.7B1$17.5B2$21.9B3$24.1B3$24.2B3
Net income$166.3M4−$540.7M5$9.77M6$2.9B6$1.31B6
Operating cash flow$847.8M7$175.9M8$101M9$1.71B9$2.58B9
Capital expenditure$134.3M10$170.8M11$151.2M12$153.9M12$155M12
Free cash flow (derived)$713.5M7$5.09M8−$50.2M9$1.55B9$2.42B9
Total debt$4.56B13$4.11B13———
Cash & equivalents$4.44B14$4.54B15$5B16$8.08B16$6.56B16
Diluted shares501.8M578.9M614.0M636.4M622.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$356.5
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.93
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $356.5 of net worth that earned you $20.96 and generated $38.93 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 -3%FY23 -0%FY24 12%FY25 10%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.77 and $159.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$159.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.55B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$91.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.55B
Earnings Power Value
$2.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$166.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$41.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $91.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$46.17
Base20.0%$91.85
Bull20.0%$91.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006354 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007376 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012254 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006354 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007376 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012254 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006354 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007376 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012254 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006354 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007376 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012254 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004840 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006354 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007376 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012254 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)