X Financial
XYFdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
X Financial earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 26% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.94 and $49.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $569.1M1 | $516.6M2 | $678.2M3 | $804.4M4 | $1.09B5 |
| Net income | $129.5M6 | $117.7M7 | $167.2M8 | $211M9 | $209.4M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $70.5M11 | $46.8M12 | $114.7M13 | $208.7M14 | $209.9M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $411,14116 | $877,90817 | $1.19M18 | $1.95M19 | $3.13M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $70.1M11 | $45.9M12 | $113.5M13 | $206.8M14 | $206.7M15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | $45M21 | $58.6M22 |
| Cash & equivalents | $91.8M23 | $87.3M24 | $168.4M25 | $134.9M26 | $141.2M27 |
| Diluted shares | 336.9M | 322.4M | 290.8M | 293.4M | 249.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $44.92 of net worth that earned you $8.39 and generated $8.29 of cash last year, against $2.35 of debt.
It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 26% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.94 and $49.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$206.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$206.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$167.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $12.17 |
| Base | 20.0% | $27.35 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $27.35 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-051593 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051321 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-002071 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000892 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-051593 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051321 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-002071 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000892 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052016 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-051593 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051321 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-002071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000892 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-051593 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051321 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-002071 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000892 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000892 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052016 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-051593 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051321 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-002071 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000892 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)