MeritValue

XTI Aerospace, Inc.

XTIAdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

XTI Aerospace, Inc. earns about -290% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 981% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$16M1$6.11M2$4.56M2$3.2M3$22.5M4
Net income−$69.2M5−$63.4M6−$25.1M7−$35.6M8−$68.8M8
Operating cash flow−$37.1M9−$34M10−$4.18M11−$22.3M12−$36.6M12
Capital expenditure$346,00013$245,00014$3,00015$68,00016$215,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$37.5M9−$34.2M10−$4.18M11−$22.4M12−$36.8M12
Total debt$3.49M17$12.6M18$43.8M19$2.79M20$8.83M20
Cash & equivalents$52.5M21$9.28M22$5,00023$3.97M24$16.7M24
Diluted shares1.5M23,32015,900227,19316.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$42.09
Free cash flow it threw off
−$22.54
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.41

10 shares is a claim on $10.86 of net worth that earned you −$42.09 and generated −$22.54 of cash last year, against $5.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-290% avg · 5y
FY21 -169%FY22 —FY23 -159%FY24 -410%FY25 -422%

It earned an average -290% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+981% shares · 5y

Share count is up 981% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 153% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-011793 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016449 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-032213 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043785 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-011793 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016449 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-032213 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043785 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-011793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016449 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-032213 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043785 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-011793 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016449 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-032213 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043785 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-011793 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016449 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-032213 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043785 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-011793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016449 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-032213 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043785 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)