MeritValue

Xerox Holdings Corp

XRXdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Xerox Holdings Corp earns about -75% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 31% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.2 and $23.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.04B1$7.11B2$6.89B3$6.22B3$7.02B3
Net income−$455M4−$322M5$1M6−$1.32B6−$1.03B6
Operating cash flow$629M7$159M8$686M9$511M9$224M9
Capital expenditure$29M10$36M11$29M12$27M12$37M12
Free cash flow (derived)$600M7$123M8$657M9$484M9$187M9
Total debt$4.9B13$4.59B14$3.84B15$3.98B16$4.48B16
Cash & equivalents$1.84B17$1.05B18$519M19$576M20$512M20
Diluted shares183.2M156.0M149.1M124.2M126.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$81.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$354.07

10 shares is a claim on $35.11 of net worth that earned you −$81.36 and generated $14.79 of cash last year, against $354.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-75% avg · 5y
FY21 -10%FY22 -10%FY23 0%FY24 -123%FY25 -232%

It earned about -75% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−31% shares · 5y

Share count is down 31% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.2 and $23.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$19.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$484M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$23.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$484M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $23.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.32
Base0.0%$23.32
Bull5.0%$36.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770450-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770450-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001770450-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770450-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770450-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001770450-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770450-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770450-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001770450-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770450-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770450-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001770450-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770450-23-000011 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770450-24-000012 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001770450-25-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001770450-26-000009 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770450-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770450-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001770450-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001770450-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)