MeritValue

Expion360 Inc.

XPONdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Expion360 Inc. earns about -196% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 28% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.52M1$7.16M2$5.98M3$5.62M4$9.65M4
Net income−$4.72M5−$7.54M6−$7.46M7−$13.5M8−$6.24M8
Operating cash flow−$3.9M9−$5.47M10−$5.53M11−$9.56M12−$6.15M12
Capital expenditure$113,69413$567,37014$20,17014——
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.01M9−$6.04M10−$5.55M11——
Total debt$3.01M15$1.09M16$749,40117$492,09818$425,54818
Cash & equivalents$773,23819$7.2M20$3.93M21$547,56522$2.97M22
Diluted shares4.3M6.8M68,882641,0115.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.31
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.77

10 shares is a claim on $11.86 of net worth that earned you −$11.31 last year, against $0.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-196% avg · 5y
FY21 -73%FY22 -85%FY23 -267%FY24 -432%FY25 -123%

It earned an average -196% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+28% shares · 5y

Share count is up 28% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 86% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000244 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000170 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001903596-25-000145 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001903596-26-000075 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000244 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000170 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001903596-25-000145 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001903596-26-000075 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000244 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000170 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001903596-25-000145 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001903596-26-000075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000244 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000170 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000244 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000170 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001903596-25-000145 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001903596-26-000075 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000244 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000170 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001903596-25-000145 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001903596-26-000075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)