MeritValue

Xponential Fitness, Inc.

XPOFdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Xponential Fitness, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 55% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $14.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$155.1M1$243.2M2$317.9M3$320.3M3$314.9M3
Net income−$18.8M4$1.22M5−$4M6−$67.7M6−$38.7M6
Operating cash flow$14.5M7$52.1M8$32.7M9$11.7M9$28.3M9
Capital expenditure$3.64M10$8.96M11$7.43M12$4.71M12$3.58M12
Free cash flow (derived)$10.8M7$43.1M8$25.3M9$6.96M9$24.7M9
Total debt$264.1M13$273.8M14$652.5M15$699.5M16$1.03B16
Cash & equivalents$21.3M17$37.4M18$37.1M19$32.7M20$45.9M20
Diluted shares22.4M25.3M39.7M32.0M34.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$77.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$296.16

10 shares is a claim on −$77.31 of net worth that earned you −$11.11 and generated $7.11 of cash last year, against $296.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 12%FY23 5%FY24 -9%FY25 -0%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+55% shares · 5y

Share count is up 55% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 290% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$24.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$24.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024250 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039541 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001802156-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024250 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039541 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001802156-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024250 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039541 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001802156-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024250 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039541 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001802156-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006082 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024250 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039541 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001802156-26-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006082 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024250 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039541 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001802156-26-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)