MeritValue

XPO, Inc.

XPOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

XPO, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $29.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.2B1$7.72B2$7.74B3$8.07B3$8.16B3
Net income$336M4$666M5$189M6$387M6$316M6
Operating cash flow$656M7$824M8$694M9$808M9$986M9
Capital expenditure$269M10$521M11$1.53B12$789M12$657M12
Free cash flow (derived)$387M7$303M8−$839M9$19M9$329M9
Total debt$3.51B13$2.47B14$3.34B15$3.33B16$3.25B16
Cash & equivalents$228M17$460M18$412M19$246M20$310M20
Diluted shares114.0M116.0M118.0M120.0M119.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$156.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.55
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$273.36

10 shares is a claim on $156.39 of net worth that earned you $26.55 and generated $27.65 of cash last year, against $273.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 9%FY23 8%FY24 8%FY25 7%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$19M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$19M
Earnings Power Value
$29.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$336M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.48
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166003-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166003-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001166003-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166003-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166003-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001166003-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166003-22-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166003-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001166003-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166003-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166003-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001166003-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166003-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166003-24-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001166003-25-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001166003-26-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166003-23-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166003-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001166003-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001166003-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)