XPENG INC.

XPEVdata completeness 100%1 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

XPENG INC. earns about -30% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020
Revenue$895.7M1
Net income−$418.7M2
Operating cash flow−$21.4M3
Capital expenditure$123.5M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$145M3
Total debt$278.6M5
Cash & equivalents$4.48B6
Diluted shares754.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$69.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.69

10 shares is a claim on $69.96 of net worth that earned you −$5.55 and generated −$1.92 of cash last year, against $3.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-30% avg · 1y
FY20 -30%

It earned an average -30% on invested capital over 1 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 1y

Share count is roughly flat over 1 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 1 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-118515 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-118515 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-118515 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-118515 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-118515 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-118515 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)