MeritValue

XPEL, Inc.

XPELdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

XPEL, Inc. earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.03 and $90.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$259.3M1$324M2$396.3M3$420.4M3$476.2M3
Net income$31.6M4$41.4M5$52.8M6$45.5M6$51.2M6
Operating cash flow$18.3M7$12.1M8$37.4M9$47.8M9$66.9M9
Capital expenditure$6.73M10$7.94M11$6.36M12$6.71M12$4.01M12
Free cash flow (derived)$11.5M7$4.12M8$31M9$41.1M9$62.9M9
Total debt$458,18813————
Cash & equivalents$9.64M14$8.06M15$11.6M16$22.1M17$50.9M17
Diluted shares27.6M27.6M27.6M27.6M27.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$101.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$22.73
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $101.25 of net worth that earned you $18.5 and generated $22.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY21 42%FY22 36%FY23 32%FY24 22%FY25 22%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.03 and $90.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$90.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$41.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$50.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$41.1M
Earnings Power Value
$17.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$45.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $50.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.06
Base20.0%$50.26
Bull20.0%$50.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001767258-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001767258-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001767258-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001767258-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001767258-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001767258-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001767258-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001767258-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001767258-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001767258-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001767258-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001767258-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001767258-22-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001767258-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001767258-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001767258-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001767258-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)