MeritValue

Xunlei Ltd

XNETdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Xunlei Ltd earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.47 and $4.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$239.6M1$342.6M2$364.9M3$324.4M3$462.4M3
Net income$1.19M4$21.5M5$14.2M6$1.22M6$1.05B6
Operating cash flow$19.5M7$51.1M8$25.7M9$31M9$32.5M9
Capital expenditure$13.2M10$15M11$3.99M12$8.03M12$5.35M12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.28M7$36.1M8$21.7M9$23M9$27.1M9
Total debt——$29.4M13$59.1M14$154.8M14
Cash & equivalents$123.4M15$177.2M16$170.8M16$177.3M16$157M16
Diluted shares336.0M336.2M326.8M319.1M316.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$43.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$4.89

10 shares is a claim on $43.4 of net worth that earned you $33.12 and generated $0.86 of cash last year, against $4.89 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 16%FY23 8%FY24 -1%FY25 76%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 427% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.47 and $4.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$23M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$23M
Earnings Power Value
$0.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.04
Base20.0%$2.37
Bull20.0%$2.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050566 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000871 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050304 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050566 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000871 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050304 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050566 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000871 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050304 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050566 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000871 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050304 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000871 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050304 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000871 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-050304 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)