MeritValue

Xometry, Inc.

XMTRdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Xometry, Inc. earns about -16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 86% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$218.3M1$380.9M2$463.4M3$545.5M3$686.6M3
Net income−$61.4M4−$79.1M4−$67.5M4−$50.4M5−$61.7M5
Operating cash flow−$68.6M6−$62.6M7−$29.9M8−$15.4M8$6.09M8
Capital expenditure$6.26M9$13.7M10$18.5M11$18.1M11$30.2M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$74.8M6−$76.2M7−$48.4M8−$33.5M8−$24.1M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$86.3M12$65.7M13$53.4M14$22.2M15$15M15
Diluted shares26.3M47.2M47.9M49.1M—

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-16% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 -19%FY23 -18%FY24 -12%FY25 -17%

It earned an average -16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+86% shares · 5y

Share count is up 86% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023214 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026655 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066959 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023214 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066959 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023214 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026655 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066959 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023214 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026655 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066959 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008494 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023214 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026655 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066959 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)