MeritValue

Xilio Therapeutics, Inc.

XLOdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Xilio Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -152% on equity, but has diluted owners by 49% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue———$6.34M1$43.8M1
Net income−$75.8M2−$88.2M3−$76.4M4−$58.2M5−$35M5
Operating cash flow−$80.8M6−$75.7M7−$68.6M8−$18.4M9−$4.99M9
Capital expenditure$1.1M10$1.87M11$486,00012$36,00013$518,00013
Free cash flow (derived)−$81.9M6−$77.6M7−$69.1M8−$18.4M9−$5.51M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$198.1M14$120.4M15$44.7M16$55.3M17$137.5M17
Diluted shares5.6M27.4M27.5M3.8M8.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$42.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$41.91
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.59
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $42.2 of net worth that earned you −$41.91 and generated −$6.59 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-152% avg · 5y
FY21 -41%FY22 -84%FY23 -207%FY24 -331%FY25 -99%

It earned an average -152% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+49% shares · 5y

Share count is up 49% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-118550 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002687 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004530 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002640 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-118550 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002687 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004530 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002640 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-118550 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002687 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004530 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002640 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-118550 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002687 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004530 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002640 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-118550 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)