MeritValue

XPLR Infrastructure, LP

XIFRdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

XPLR Infrastructure, LP earns about 0% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $15.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$722M1$969M2$1.08B3$1.23B3$1.19B3
Net income$137M4$477M5$200M6−$23M6−$28M6
Operating cash flow$677M7$776M8$731M9$800M9$739M9
Capital expenditure$113M10$1.35B11$1.27B12$241M12$958M12
Free cash flow (derived)$564M7−$575M8−$538M9$559M9−$219M9
Total debt$10.7B13$10.6B14$12.6B15$10.6B16$12.4B16
Cash & equivalents$147M17$226M18$274M19$283M20$960M20
Diluted shares77.4M84.9M91.6M93.5M93.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,160.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.98
Free cash flow it threw off
−$23.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,320.98

10 shares is a claim on $1,160.7 of net worth that earned you −$2.98 and generated −$23.32 of cash last year, against $1,320.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 4%FY23 -1%FY24 -2%FY25 -2%

It earned an average 0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$15.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$137M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603145-24-000005 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603145-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603145-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603145-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603145-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603145-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603145-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603145-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603145-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603145-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603145-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603145-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603145-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603145-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603145-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001603145-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603145-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603145-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603145-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001603145-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)