MeritValue

Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.

XHRdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.04 and $34.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$616.2M1$997.6M2$1.03B3$1.04B3$1.08B3
Net income−$143.5M4$55.9M5$19.1M6$16.1M6$63.1M6
Operating cash flow$40.8M7$187.1M8$198.1M9$163.7M9$176.5M9
Capital expenditure$31.8M10$70.4M11$120.9M12$140.6M12$86.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$8.94M7$116.8M8$77.2M9$23.2M9$89.9M9
Total debt$1.49B13$1.43B14$1.39B15$1.33B16$1.42B16
Cash & equivalents$517.4M17$305.1M18$164.7M19$78.2M19$140.4M19
Diluted shares113.8M114.4M108.4M102.3M97.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$116.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.25
Debt you’d be carrying
$146.44

10 shares is a claim on $116.73 of net worth that earned you $6.49 and generated $9.25 of cash last year, against $146.44 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 1%FY25 3%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.04 and $34.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$34.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$77.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$77.2M
Earnings Power Value
$2.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$1.85
Base20.0%$12.69
Bull20.0%$12.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616000-24-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616000-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616000-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616000-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616000-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616000-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616000-24-000023 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616000-25-000022 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011060 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616000-23-000025 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616000-24-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001616000-25-000022 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011060 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616000-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616000-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)