MeritValue

EXAGEN INC.

XGNdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

EXAGEN INC. earns about -104% on equity, but has diluted owners by 35% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$48.3M1$45.6M2$52.5M3$55.6M4$66.6M4
Net income−$26.9M5−$47.4M6−$23.7M7−$15.1M8−$20M8
Operating cash flow−$20.3M9−$32.1M10−$14.5M11−$13.3M12−$13.6M12
Capital expenditure$2.37M13$4.32M14$828,00015$515,00016$641,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$22.6M9−$36.5M10−$15.3M11−$13.8M12−$14.3M12
Total debt$55M17$57.9M18$39M19$40.5M20$45.8M20
Cash & equivalents$99.4M21$62.4M22$36.5M23$22M24$32.2M24
Diluted shares16.0M17.1M17.7M18.2M21.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.25
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$21.25

10 shares is a claim on $8.09 of net worth that earned you −$9.25 and generated −$6.62 of cash last year, against $21.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-104% avg · 5y
FY21 -32%FY22 -112%FY23 -104%FY24 -158%FY25 -114%

It earned an average -104% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+35% shares · 5y

Share count is up 35% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274737-23-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274737-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274737-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001274737-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274737-23-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274737-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274737-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001274737-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274737-23-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274737-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274737-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001274737-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274737-23-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274737-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274737-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001274737-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274737-23-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274737-24-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274737-25-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001274737-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274737-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274737-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274737-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001274737-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)