MeritValue

XCel Brands, Inc.

XELBdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

XCel Brands, Inc. earns about -24% on invested capital, and has bought back 82% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$37.9M1$25.8M2$17.8M3$8.26M4$4.94M4
Net income−$12.2M5−$4.02M6−$21.1M7−$22.4M8−$17.5M8
Operating cash flow−$6.56M9−$14.2M10−$6.55M11−$4.72M12−$7.02M12
Capital expenditure$1.1M13$265,00014$100,00015$112,00016$10,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.65M9−$14.4M10−$6.65M11−$4.83M12−$7.03M12
Total debt$56.1M17—$9.44M18$13.1M19$25.4M19
Cash & equivalents$4.48M20$4.61M21$3M22$1.25M23$1.15M23
Diluted shares19.5M19.6M2.0M2.3M3.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$52.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$50.82
Free cash flow it threw off
−$20.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$73.96

10 shares is a claim on $52.28 of net worth that earned you −$50.82 and generated −$20.47 of cash last year, against $73.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-24% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 -5%FY23 -29%FY24 -42%FY25 -33%

It earned an average -24% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−82% shares · 5y

Share count is down 82% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 55% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006076 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-005326 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008172 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043348 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-005326 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008172 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043348 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-005326 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008172 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043348 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-005326 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008172 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043348 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006076 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008172 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043348 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-005326 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008172 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043348 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)