MeritValue

XCEL ENERGY INC

XELdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

XCEL ENERGY INC earns about 11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $31.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.4B1$15.3B2$14.2B3$13.4B3$14.7B3
Net income$1.6B4$1.74B5$1.77B6$1.94B6$2.02B6
Operating cash flow$2.19B7$3.93B8$5.33B9$4.64B9$4.08B9
Capital expenditure$4.24B10$4.64B11$5.85B12$7.36B12$10.9B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$2.06B7−$706M8−$527M9−$2.72B9−$6.83B9
Total debt$1.01B13$813M14$785M15$28B16$33.4B16
Cash & equivalents$166M17$111M18$129M18$179M18$274M18
Diluted shares540.0M547.0M552.0M563.0M589.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$400.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.26
Free cash flow it threw off
−$115.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$566.76

10 shares is a claim on $400.83 of net worth that earned you $34.26 and generated −$115.87 of cash last year, against $566.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 15%FY23 15%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 3222% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$31.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.77B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$55.54
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072903-24-000034 (RegulatedAndUnregulatedOperatingRevenue)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072903-25-000029 (RegulatedAndUnregulatedOperatingRevenue)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000072903-26-000009 (RegulatedAndUnregulatedOperatingRevenue)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072903-24-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072903-25-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000072903-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072903-24-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072903-25-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000072903-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072903-24-000034 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072903-25-000029 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000072903-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072903-23-000007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072903-24-000034 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000072903-25-000029 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000072903-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072903-25-000029 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072903-26-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)