MeritValue

EXICURE, INC.

XCURdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

EXICURE, INC. earns about -1025% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 113% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue−$483,0001$28.8M2$03$500,0004$04
Net income−$64.1M5−$2.58M6−$16.9M7−$9.7M8−$4.95M8
Operating cash flow−$34.8M9−$35.7M10−$10.4M11−$2.91M12−$8.56M12
Capital expenditure$968,00013$10,00014$014$015$1,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$35.8M9−$35.7M10−$10.4M11−$2.91M12−$8.56M12
Total debt$13.7M16$017———
Cash & equivalents$34.6M18$8.58M19$816,00019$12.5M20$3.75M20
Diluted shares3.0M4.6M1.6M2.0M6.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.85
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13.59
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $6.23 of net worth that earned you −$7.85 and generated −$13.59 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1025% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -22%FY23 -603%FY24 —FY25 -2449%

It earned an average -1025% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+113% shares · 5y

Share count is up 113% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698530-23-000029 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698530-24-000051 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698530-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001698530-26-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698530-23-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698530-24-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698530-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001698530-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698530-23-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698530-24-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001698530-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001698530-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698530-23-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698530-24-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001698530-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698530-22-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698530-23-000029 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001698530-23-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001698530-24-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001698530-26-000028 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)