MeritValue

WYNN RESORTS LTD

WYNNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WYNN RESORTS LTD earns about 2% on invested capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $32.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.76B1$3.76B2$6.53B3$7.13B3$7.14B3
Net income−$755.8M4−$423.9M5$730M6$501.1M6$327.3M6
Operating cash flow−$222.6M7−$71.3M8$1.25B9$1.43B9$1.35B9
Capital expenditure$290.7M10$300.1M11$442.8M12$419.9M12$660.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$513.2M7−$371.4M8$805.1M9$1.01B9$692.2M9
Total debt$23.9B13$24.2B14$23.5B15$21.1B16$21.1B16
Cash & equivalents$2.52B17$3.65B18$2.88B19$2.43B20$1.46B20
Diluted shares113.8M113.6M112.9M110.3M104.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$26.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$66.4
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,023.51

10 shares is a claim on −$26.43 of net worth that earned you $31.4 and generated $66.4 of cash last year, against $2,023.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -0%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 2%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$805.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$805.1M
Earnings Power Value
$32.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$327.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174922-24-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174922-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174922-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174922-24-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174922-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174922-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174922-24-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174922-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174922-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174922-24-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174922-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174922-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174922-23-000048 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174922-24-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174922-25-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174922-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174922-23-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174922-24-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174922-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174922-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)