MeritValue

WEYERHAEUSER CO

WYdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WEYERHAEUSER CO earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.7 and $12.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.2B1$10.2B2$7.67B3$7.12B3$6.91B3
Net income$2.61B4$1.88B5$839M6$396M6$324M6
Operating cash flow$3.16B7$2.83B8$1.43B9$1.01B9$562M9
Capital expenditure$55M10$53M11$57M12$52M12$51M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.1B7$2.78B8$1.38B9$956M9$511M9
Total debt$10.2B13$10.1B14$10.1B15$10.2B16$11.1B16
Cash & equivalents$1.88B17$1.58B18$1.16B19$684M20$464M20
Diluted shares751.0M743.0M732.2M729.0M723.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$130.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$154.01

10 shares is a claim on $130.27 of net worth that earned you $4.48 and generated $7.06 of cash last year, against $154.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 11%FY23 6%FY24 3%FY25 3%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.7 and $12.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$956M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$956M
Earnings Power Value
$12.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$839M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.48
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.12
Base0.0%$4.12
Bull5.0%$8.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016434 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021254 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051422 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016434 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021254 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051422 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016434 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021254 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051422 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016434 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021254 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051422 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003217 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016434 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021254 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051422 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003217 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016434 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021254 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051422 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)