MeritValue

WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE INC /DE/

WWWdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE INC /DE/ earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.73 and $79.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$2.41B1$2.68B2$2.24B3$1.76B3$1.87B3
Net income$68.6M4−$188.3M5−$38.5M6$45.2M6$95.8M6
Operating cash flow$86.8M7−$178.9M8$121.8M9$180.1M9$140M9
Capital expenditure$17.6M10$36.5M11$14.6M12$20.2M12$14.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$69.2M7−$215.4M8$107.2M9$159.9M9$125.5M9
Total debt$1.71B13$1.89B14$1.54B15$1.23B16$1.17B16
Cash & equivalents$161.7M17$131.5M18$179M19$152.1M20$206.3M20
Diluted shares83.3M79.7M79.4M80.0M81.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$49.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$143.01

10 shares is a claim on $49.94 of net worth that earned you $11.73 and generated $15.36 of cash last year, against $143.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY22 2%FY22 -11%FY23 -9%FY24 1%FY26 5%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 32% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.73 and $79.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$79.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$125.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$38.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$125.5M
Earnings Power Value
$5.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$45.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $38.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.17
Base20.0%$38.31
Bull20.0%$38.31

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000110471-24-000057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000110471-25-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-012614 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000110471-24-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000110471-25-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-012614 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000110471-24-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000110471-25-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-012614 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000110471-24-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000110471-25-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-012614 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000110471-23-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000110471-24-000057 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000110471-25-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-012614 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000110471-22-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000110471-24-000057 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000110471-25-000046 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-012614 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)