MeritValue

Woodward, Inc.

WWDdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Woodward, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.18 and $83.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.25B1$2.38B2$2.91B3$3.32B3$3.57B3
Net income$208.6M4$171.7M5$232.4M6$373M6$442.1M6
Operating cash flow$464.7M7$193.6M8$308.5M9$439.1M9$471.3M9
Capital expenditure$37.7M10$52.9M11$76.5M12$96.3M12$130.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$427M7$140.8M8$232M9$342.8M9$340.4M9
Total debt$1.47B13$1.49B14$1.44B15$1.53B16$1.28B16
Cash & equivalents$448.5M17$107.8M18$137.4M19$282.3M20$327.4M20
Diluted shares65.6M63.3M61.5M62.1M61.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$417.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$71.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$55.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$208.59

10 shares is a claim on $417.54 of net worth that earned you $71.93 and generated $55.38 of cash last year, against $208.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 12%FY25 14%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.18 and $83.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$83.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.0%
  • fcfBase$340.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$78.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.0%
  • fcfBase$340.4M
Earnings Power Value
$39.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$232.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$82.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $78.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.59
Base4.0%$78.71
Bull9.0%$100.84

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064764 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-130891 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-296204 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064764 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-130891 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-296204 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064764 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-130891 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-296204 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064764 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-130891 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-296204 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001564590-22-038033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064764 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-130891 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-296204 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-130891 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064764 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-130891 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-296204 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)