MeritValue

WW INTERNATIONAL, INC.

WWdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WW INTERNATIONAL, INC. earns about -1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$1.38B1$1.21B2$1.04B3$889.6M4$785.9M4
Net income$75.1M5$67.1M6−$256.9M7−$112.3M8−$345.7M8
Operating cash flow$135.9M9$157.3M10$76.6M11$6.69M12−$16.8M12
Capital expenditure$21.5M13$2.45M14$2.07M15$2.49M16$718,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$114.5M9$154.8M10$74.6M11$4.2M12−$17.6M12
Total debt$2.97B17$2.84B18$2.84B19$2.85B20$2.86B21
Cash & equivalents$165.9M22$153.8M23$178.3M24$109.4M25$53M26
Diluted shares70.0M70.7M70.3M76.7M79.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$140.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$43.44
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$359.56

10 shares is a claim on −$140.04 of net worth that earned you −$43.44 and generated −$2.21 of cash last year, against $359.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 6%FY22 -11%FY23 1%FY24 -11%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-01-02 · accession 0000950170-23-006247 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-022144 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029511 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-107176 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-01-02 · accession 0000950170-23-006247 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-022144 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029511 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-107176 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-01-02 · accession 0000950170-23-006247 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-022144 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029511 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-107176 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-01-02 · accession 0000950170-23-006247 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-022144 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029511 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-107176 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-01-02 · accession 0001564590-22-008076 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-006247 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022144 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-029511 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-107176 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2021-01-02 · accession 0001564590-22-008076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-006247 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022144 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-029511 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  26. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-107176 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)