MeritValue

Wave Life Sciences Ltd.

WVEdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Wave Life Sciences Ltd. earns about -152% on equity, but has diluted owners by 225% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$41M1$3.65M2$113.3M3$108.3M3$42.7M3
Net income−$122.2M4−$161.8M5−$57.5M6−$97M6−$204.4M6
Operating cash flow−$89M7−$127.8M8−$19.4M9−$151M9−$187.5M9
Capital expenditure$560,00010$1.36M11$1.12M12$938,00012$718,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$89.6M7−$129.1M8−$20.5M9−$152M9−$188.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$150.6M13$88.5M14$200.4M15$302.1M16$602.1M16
Diluted shares51.8M78.9M106.1M138.3M168.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$30.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.12
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.16
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $30.74 of net worth that earned you −$12.12 and generated −$11.16 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-152% avg · 5y
FY21 -376%FY22 —FY23 -145%FY24 -46%FY25 -39%

It earned an average -152% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+225% shares · 5y

Share count is up 225% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009319 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-031322 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073472 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009319 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-031322 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073472 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009319 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-031322 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073472 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009319 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-031322 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073472 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009319 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026876 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-031322 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073472 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)