MeritValue

Western Union CO

WUdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Western Union CO earns about 43% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.34 and $25.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.87B1$4.25B2$4.16B3$4.03B3$3.88B3
Net income$805.8M4$910.6M5$626M6$934.2M6$499.6M6
Operating cash flow$1.05B7$581.6M8$783.1M9$406.3M9$543.7M9
Capital expenditure$37.7M10$31.9M11$22.9M12$37.4M12$38.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.01B7$549.7M8$760.2M9$368.9M9$505.2M9
Total debt$2.75B13$2.45B14$2.15B15$2.95B16$2.88B17
Cash & equivalents$1.21B18$1.29B19$1.27B20$1.47B20$1.23B20
Diluted shares408.9M388.4M371.8M341.1M327.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$29.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$88.06

10 shares is a claim on $29.24 of net worth that earned you $15.25 and generated $15.42 of cash last year, against $88.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
43% avg · 5y
FY21 47%FY22 61%FY23 53%FY24 30%FY25 24%

It earned about 43% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.34 and $25.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$505.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$505.2M
Earnings Power Value
$25.49
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$805.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$10
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17
Base0.0%$17
Bull5.0%$22.33

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018751 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024137 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061340 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018751 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024137 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061340 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018751 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024137 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061340 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018751 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024137 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061340 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-001962 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004146 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018751 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024137 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061340 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018751 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024137 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061340 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)