MeritValue

WILLIS TOWERS WATSON PLC

WTWdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WILLIS TOWERS WATSON PLC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $97.22 and $116.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.83B1$8.73B2$9.3B3$9.74B3$9.52B3
Net income$4.22B4$1.01B5$1.06B6−$98M6$1.61B6
Operating cash flow$2.06B7$812M8$1.35B9$1.51B9$1.78B9
Capital expenditure——$242M10$245M10$229M10
Free cash flow (derived)——$1.1B9$1.27B9$1.55B9
Total debt$11.2B11$11.5B12$12.7B13$13.9B14$16B14
Cash & equivalents$4.49B15$1.26B16$1.42B17$1.89B17$3.13B17
Diluted shares129.0M112.0M106.0M102.0M99.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$805.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$162.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$156.16
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,615.25

10 shares is a claim on $805.66 of net worth that earned you $162.12 and generated $156.16 of cash last year, against $1,615.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 6%FY23 6%FY24 1%FY25 9%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−23% shares · 5y

Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 42% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $97.22 and $116.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$116.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.27B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$97.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.27B
Earnings Power Value
$110.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.06B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$171.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $97.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$52.97
Base5.0%$97.22
Bull10.0%$150.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018575 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026278 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-069307 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018575 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026278 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-069307 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018575 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026278 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-069307 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-069307 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004303 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018575 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026278 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-069307 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018575 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026278 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-069307 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)