MeritValue

WHITE MOUNTAINS INSURANCE GROUP LTD

WTMdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

WHITE MOUNTAINS INSURANCE GROUP LTD earns about 7% on invested capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2,082.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$427.5M1$1.16B2$2.17B3$2.24B3$3.74B3
Net income−$275.4M4$792.8M5$509.2M6$230.4M6$1.11B6
Operating cash flow$38.6M7$365M8$404.1M9$586.8M9$550.5M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$420.9M10$575.2M11$564.6M12$562.5M13$837M13
Cash & equivalents$147.7M14$255M15$122.4M15$266.4M15$185.6M15
Diluted shares3.0M2.8M2.5M2.5M2.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$21,407.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4,365.7
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$3,302.69

10 shares is a claim on $21,407.88 of net worth that earned you $4,365.7 last year, against $3,302.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 -2%FY23 13%FY24 7%FY25 21%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 99% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$2,082.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$509.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4,551.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776867-22-000002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000776867-25-000003 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012603 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776867-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000776867-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012603 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776867-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000776867-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012603 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776867-23-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000776867-24-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000776867-25-000003 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012603 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000776867-25-000003 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012603 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)