MeritValue

WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORP

WTFCdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORP earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $95.03 and $153.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$207.2M1$217.7M2$220.4M3$250.7M3$265.6M3
Net income$466.2M4$509.7M5$622.6M6$695M6$823.8M6
Operating cash flow$1.13B7$1.38B8$744.4M9$721.6M9$910.3M9
Capital expenditure$57.1M10$53.4M11$46.4M12$86M12$50M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.07B7$1.32B8$698M9$635.5M9$860.4M9
Total debt$9.2M13$17.6M14$13.4M15$015—
Cash & equivalents$411.2M16$491M17$423.5M17$458.5M17$467.9M17
Diluted shares57.8M60.1M62.1M64.7M67.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,069.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$121.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$126.73
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1,069.12 of net worth that earned you $121.34 and generated $126.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 16%FY23 28%FY24 31%FY25 28%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $95.03 and $153.77 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$142.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$698M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$153.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$698M
Earnings Power Value
$95.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$622.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$165.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $153.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$153.77
Base0.0%$153.77
Bull5.0%$189.33

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015328-24-000083 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015328-25-000093 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015328-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015328-24-000083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015328-25-000093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015328-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015328-24-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015328-25-000093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015328-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015328-24-000083 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015328-25-000093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015328-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015328-23-000070 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015328-24-000083 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015328-25-000093 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015328-25-000093 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015328-26-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)