Waton Financial Ltd

WTFdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Waton Financial Ltd earns about -71% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.33 and $0.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.74M1$10.1M1$7.45M1
Net income$3.08M2$2.5M2−$12M2
Operating cash flow$12M3−$1.85M3$359,9653
Capital expenditure$4,9784$262,0914$13,7444
Free cash flow (derived)$12M3−$2.11M3$346,2213
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$19.1M5$4.95M5$7.72M5
Diluted shares34.7M62.8M41.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.86
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.08
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $3.05 of net worth that earned you −$2.86 and generated $0.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-71% avg · 3y
FY23 FY24 43%FY25 -185%

It earned about -71% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 3y

Share count is up 20% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.33 and $0.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$346,221
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$346,221
Earnings Power Value
$0.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.3
Base5.0%$0.33
Bull10.0%$0.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-027147 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-027147 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-027147 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-027147 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-027147 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)